Possible scenario
Crackdown Expands Broadly
20% Chance
The order becomes the basis for a wider restriction campaign, using Labor Department wage enforcement, USCIS adjudication standards, and Justice Department fraud referrals. This path is less likely because it risks another court defeat, but it is consistent with the administration's September 2026 move after registrations plunged.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -3.3%
- Technology -2.8%
- Healthcare -0.9%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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