Possible scenario
No Yield Targeting
45% Chance
The ECB sticks to Nagel's line that its tools are designed to preserve monetary transmission, not cap any member state's borrowing costs. Investors interpret this as a reminder that France must address fiscal slippage before expecting central-bank support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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