Possible scenario
ECB Reassures Markets
30% Chance
Other ECB officials clarify that Nagel's statement does not rule out use of the Transmission Protection Instrument if market functioning deteriorates. The message preserves conditionality while reducing fears of a one-way widening in French spreads.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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