Possible scenario
Growth Scare Emerges
20% Chance
The yield milestone starts to be interpreted less as an inflation signal and more as a threat to growth, housing and corporate refinancing. In this path, equities and credit sell off while Treasuries catch some flight-to-quality demand after the initial spike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.1%
- Finance -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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