Possible scenario
Localized Tensions Rise
18% Chance
The burial could become a rallying point for public anger in Gaza and the West Bank, especially if families accuse Israel of delaying access to rubble sites. The most likely effects remain localized, though crossings and aid convoys could face temporary disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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