Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Strike
30% Chance
The White House moves from reviewing options to a contained military action, most likely against Iranian missile, drone, or nuclear-linked facilities. The administration attempts to frame the operation as limited and deterrent-focused before the midterms, while warning Tehran against retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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