Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
Back-channel mediation by Oman, Qatar, or European governments gives Washington a reason to postpone strikes. Iran offers limited cooperation or restraint, allowing both sides to claim deterrence without immediate military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.