Possible scenario
Coercive Pressure Campaign
35% Chance
Trump keeps military options active but stops short of authorizing immediate strikes. The administration relies on sanctions, naval deployments, cyber operations, and public threats to deter Iran while preserving political flexibility before the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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