Possible scenario
Lease Sale Proceeds
45% Chance
The U.S. keeps the Nov. 19 timetable and receives credible bids for the first deep sea mining leases. This is the base case because the Trump administration has already used executive authority and critical-minerals policy to accelerate a U.S.-controlled alternative to China-linked supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.1%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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