Possible scenario
Recovery Broadens
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the GDP beat confirms a genuine improvement from the stagnation seen in late 2024. Strong industrial production and Q2 GDP already suggested momentum, so investors treat the August print as evidence of a firmer but still manageable recovery.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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