Possible scenario
Hawkish BoE Repricing
30% Chance
The stronger GDP print reinforces Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill's earlier argument that firmer growth strengthens the case for higher rates. Markets increase the probability of another BOE hike or a longer hold at restrictive levels.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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