Possible scenario
Talks Resume Slowly
30% Chance
Mediation restarts but does not immediately produce a halt in fighting. Both sides use Qatar’s channel to define red lines, with Tehran seeking sanctions relief and Washington demanding limits on missiles, nuclear activity, and attacks on Gulf allies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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