Possible scenario
Mediation Breaks Down
20% Chance
Renewed mediation collapses over nuclear-site access, missile limits, or sanctions sequencing. The failure raises the probability of renewed U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure, reversing the de-escalation premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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