Possible scenario
Ceasefire Framework Emerges
40% Chance
Renewed mediation produces a near-term de-escalation formula rather than a final peace deal. Qatar, with Oman and European backing, brokers a pause in Iranian strikes and U.S.-Israeli retaliation while negotiators work on inspections, sanctions relief, and regional security guarantees.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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