Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
24% Chance
Regional intermediaries push Washington and Tehran toward a limited maritime understanding because both sides face rising economic and military risks. A full political settlement remains unlikely, but even a narrow transit pause would quickly reverse part of the oil shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.1%
- Consumer Services +2.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +2.2%
- Finance +1.5%
- Industrials +1.1%
Tickers
- DAL+2.2%
- XOM-1.9%
- CCL+1.9%
- CVX-1.6%
- UAL+1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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