Possible scenario
Limited Maritime Escalation
38% Chance
The most likely path is continued ship attacks and traffic restrictions without a formal U.S.-Iran war declaration. Washington, Gulf states, and insurers try to keep enough tanker traffic moving through escorted convoys, leaving oil markets volatile but not fully frozen.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
- Consumer Services -2.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.9%
- Industrials -1.7%
- Finance -0.8%
Tickers
- FRO+3.6%
- CVX+2.6%
- TNK+2.0%
- AAL-1.8%
- DAL-1.5%
- XOM+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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