Possible scenario
Direct Military Clash
20% Chance
A direct U.S.-Iran exchange becomes plausible after repeated vessel hits, Iran's restrictions, and the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports. This would be a crisis-level shock because markets would price a much larger probability of temporary Hormuz closure and regional retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -7.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -5.3%
- Industrials -4.9%
- Energy +4.6%
- Finance -4.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -2.5%
- Technology -1.6%
Tickers
- DAL-4.9%
- XOM+4.6%
- UAL-3.1%
- CVX+2.5%
- LMT+1.8%
- RTX+1.6%
- NOC+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-4.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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