Possible scenario
Unions Join Protests
20% Chance
The student revolt links up with public-sector unions angered by the strike crackdown and education cuts. This would broaden the event from campus politics into a short-lived national disruption affecting transport, public services, retail footfall, and tourism sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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