Possible scenario
Police Clearances Continue
30% Chance
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu doubles down on restoring access to universities, using police operations and administrative closures to contain the movement. This keeps disruption geographically limited but sustains images of confrontation and further detentions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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