Possible scenario
Negotiated Campus Reopening
35% Chance
The most likely path is a partial de-escalation after the Education Ministry, university presidents, and student unions open talks. The government has an incentive to prevent campus blockades from merging with wider public-sector unrest while preserving Lecornu's law-and-order posture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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