Possible scenario
Nomination Fight Emerges
20% Chance
A less benign path is that Germany’s coalition politics and EU-level bargaining slow the appointment process. The dispute would not amount to a monetary-policy crisis, but it could add small uncertainty around ECB governance and the balance between hawks and doves.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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