Possible scenario
Waiver Framework Emerges
20% Chance
The US and Iraq move toward a managed waiver that permits limited Iranian flights under monitoring conditions. This outcome would allow Baghdad to preserve religious travel links while reducing the risk that Iraqi airports, banks, or ground handlers face secondary sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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