Possible scenario
US Pressure Returns
25% Chance
Washington objects to the reversal and privately or publicly warns Iraqi authorities against servicing sanctioned Iranian carriers. Iraq responds by narrowing the reopening or shifting traffic to non-sanctioned operators where possible.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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