Possible scenario
Limited Reopening Holds
45% Chance
Iraq allows Iranian flights to Najaf to continue while avoiding a full nationwide reopening. Baghdad frames the decision as a narrow humanitarian and pilgrimage-related exception as it continues discussions with the US Treasury and State Department.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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