Possible scenario
US Declines Base
18% Chance
Washington decides that a permanent base is unnecessary or too provocative, even with Lithuanian funding. The US instead preserves rotational deployments, exercises and equipment prepositioning while avoiding a formal permanent basing commitment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- VVX-0.9%
- KBR-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.