Possible scenario
Direct Iran Strikes
20% Chance
The Camp David review concludes that deterrence has failed after Iranian threats against U.S. bases and earlier attacks on Israel and Gulf states. Washington either joins or materially enables Israeli strikes on IRGC missile infrastructure, while trying to keep nuclear sites and civilian oil facilities off the target list.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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