Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
30% Chance
The talks conclude that a direct U.S.-Iran clash is too costly and that Vance should pursue a back-channel pause. Oman, Qatar, and possibly Switzerland facilitate understandings on U.S. bases, Israeli restraint, and Houthi activity in the Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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