Possible scenario
Contained Military Posture
35% Chance
The Camp David talks produce a deterrence package rather than an immediate U.S. strike on Iran. Washington reinforces Gulf bases, coordinates with Israel, and authorizes narrow operations against Iran-backed networks if they threaten U.S. forces or Red Sea traffic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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