Possible scenario
Treasury Market Repricing
25% Chance
Investors interpret China's record gold position alongside recent Treasury reductions as evidence of faster de-dollarization. The near-term reaction is a modest rise in term premia rather than a disorderly Treasury selloff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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