Possible scenario
Gradual Reserve Diversification
45% Chance
China treats the new fifth-place ranking as part of a steady reserve-management strategy rather than a rupture with dollar assets. The People's Bank of China and SAFE continue adding gold while avoiding language that would destabilize the Treasury market.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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