Possible scenario
Signaling Stays Contained
36% Chance
Iran uses the cable threat as deterrent messaging rather than immediately damaging infrastructure. U.S. and Gulf officials reinforce protection of landing stations and cable routes, while Oman and Qatar keep backchannel contacts open.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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