Possible scenario
Military Escalation Spreads
25% Chance
A new U.S. or Israeli strike on Iranian military or nuclear-related infrastructure triggers IRGC retaliation against communications and maritime targets. This is less likely than contained signaling but plausible given the prior tanker attacks and U.S. Navy strikes inside Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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