Possible scenario
Limited Cable Disruption
27% Chance
Iran or an aligned unit tests the threat with a deniable cyber or physical disruption rather than a full cable-cutting campaign. The most likely impact is temporary rerouting of internet traffic through Red Sea, Saudi, or terrestrial routes, with higher latency across parts of the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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