Possible scenario
Security Deal Advances
34% Chance
Saudi Arabia treats the Houthi threat as urgent enough to test a narrow security channel with Israel, while keeping full normalization conditional. Netanyahu uses the opening to show diplomatic momentum before elections, but Riyadh avoids a sweeping public commitment without U.S. guarantees and Gaza concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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