Possible scenario
Gaza Conditions Block
23% Chance
Saudi leaders conclude that taking Israeli intelligence before visible Gaza concessions would be politically costly. The normalization track remains tied to a cease-fire, humanitarian access and a credible Palestinian-statehood process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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