Possible scenario
Limited Diplomatic Friction
20% Chance
Beijing may publicly reject the allegations and accuse Washington of politicizing law enforcement. Unless China retaliates against U.S. citizens or institutions, the case is unlikely to move beyond routine U.S.-China diplomatic friction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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