Possible scenario
War Risk Worsens
20% Chance
The political focus on fuel prices does not reduce the underlying conflict risk around Hormuz and Iranian exports. Tehran may try to raise the domestic cost of the U.S. blockade, while Washington maintains the oil-export cutoff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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