Possible scenario
Campaign Blame Dominates
35% Chance
Republican candidates keep the Iran War and diesel prices at the center of the midterm campaign rather than producing immediate policy change. Mike Rogers' message is likely to be repeated by the RNC and House GOP because $6-plus diesel is a simple, high-salience voter issue.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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