Possible scenario
Capacity Catches Demand
25% Chance
The planned Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron capacity expansions narrow the supply gap by 2028-2029, but demand from AI clusters, enterprise refreshes and sovereign AI projects prevents a classic memory glut. Pricing power moderates rather than collapses.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+2.0%
- DELL+1.1%
- MU-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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