Possible scenario
Phased Funding Bridge
40% Chance
Hezbollah keeps the displacement program alive by combining Iranian transfers, diaspora fundraising, and delayed cash disbursements. This is the most likely path because the announced $600 million to $800 million cost exceeds Iran's initial $200 million aid but remains politically important for Hezbollah's postwar legitimacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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