Possible scenario
USMCA Crisis Escalates
20% Chance
The dispute broadens from a targeted tariff exchange into a direct challenge to North American trade rules. This is less likely because it would hurt U.S. manufacturers and consumers, but it is plausible given the July and September escalation pattern.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.0%
- Industrials -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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