Possible scenario
Negotiated Tariff Pause
38% Chance
Washington and Ottawa use the new Canadian retaliation as leverage to restart USMCA renewal talks. Both sides keep headline tariffs in place initially but carve out politically sensitive exemptions to limit damage before the U.S. midterms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.