Possible scenario
Managed Tariff Standoff
32% Chance
The most likely non-negotiated path is a controlled standoff: Canada keeps pressure on swing-state industries while the White House avoids a wider escalation before Election Day. The market impact stays moderate because investors have already priced in a worsening U.S.-Canada trade dispute.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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