Possible scenario
Small Secondary Cluster
24% Chance
A limited number of infections appear among close contacts or health workers already under observation. The outbreak remains traceable, and Kenyan authorities avoid nationwide restrictions while intensifying isolation and testing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Healthcare +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.