Possible scenario
Localized Kenyan Spread
13% Chance
Kenya records a small but more concerning chain of transmission outside the original contact group. The government imposes targeted restrictions in affected counties, while the World Health Organization and Africa CDC send additional support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Healthcare +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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