Possible scenario
Imported Case Contained
58% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Kenya's Ebola event remains a single imported fatal case linked to the Congo outbreak. The absence of positives after 293 tests and early quarantine of contacts suggest surveillance is working and the transmission chain may already be broken.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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