Possible scenario
Maritime Proxy Escalation
24% Chance
Iran’s mobilization is followed by pressure on sea lanes rather than immediate conventional war. The IRGC Navy, Houthis, and Iraqi or Syrian militias create enough disruption to raise shipping and oil-risk premia without fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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