Limited US Strikes

The most likely path is a contained U.S. or U.S.-backed strike package against IRGC missile, drone, or command infrastructure after prior evacuation signals. Iran’s mobilization is used to harden defenses and signal resolve, but both Washington and Tehran avoid actions that force an immediate all-out war.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.