Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
20% Chance
The mobilization may be intended as a deterrent during a short crisis window rather than a prelude to war. Oman, Qatar, Switzerland, or the UN could help transmit messages that allow both sides to claim readiness while postponing strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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