Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Risk
18% Chance
Saudi Arabia may conclude that the tempo and sophistication of attacks require a wider response, especially if missile debris is tied to Iran or Iraqi militias. This would move the event from a Saudi-Yemen security issue toward a broader Gulf confrontation risk, raising crude and volatility more materially.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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